Enverus, the leading global energy data analytics and SaaS technology company, has released a new ranking of states’ performance in terms of data releases.
Production data is at the heart of all oil and gas forecasting, valuation analysis and engineering
design, but what constitutes useful data depends on the user’s needs. For example, data can be fairly incomplete yet still useful for an engineer to create a reliable type curve.This contrasts with production forecasting where the difference in 80%, 90% and 100% of wells being reported to state agencies drives meaningful variances, even when projections incorporate real-time indicators.
“Actionable oil and gas supply forecasts influence hedging, drilling and investment decisions. Understanding the trajectory of future output in each area means it is critical to know how many wells that production came from — wells that may not yet be visible in the public domain,” said Farzin Mou, vice president of Intelligence at Enverus. “Analyzing the time it takes for states to report production after a well comes online allows for more accurate estimations of both present-day and future production volumes. Although it is unclear why some wells take longer to report than others, we identify persistent variances across state agencies that differentiate leaders from laggards.”
Enverus has begun tackling deficiencies in reporting practices by analyzing state reporting lags between when a well is put on production and the date that this production is publicly reported. This analysis informs the forecast start date and estimates the number of wells that have yet to be reported to provide accurate estimations of both present-day and future production volumes.
In a recent case study, results showed distinct patterns in reporting times between regions. Colorado, Wyoming, Pennsylvania and New Mexico are the quickest states to report more than 95% of total new wells with reporting lags of three to four months.Conversely, Texas lags the most, typically taking nine months between first production date and when at least 95% of wells are reported to the state. Oklahoma’s production reporting historically lagged like Texas. However, beginning in 2020, reporting improved to nearly twice as fast, only taking about five months for 95% completion.
Wells in Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Wyoming, Texas and Louisiana trickle in gradually during a three-to-nine-month period, while those in Appalachia are reported in batches on a monthly or quarterly basis. The Appalachian states of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio are unique in that nearly 100% of wells are reported at once.
Source: Enverus press release