IEA–don’t let lower crude oil prices fool you

North Dakota Oil Output Hits 1 Million Bpd |


Worth repeating from Axios Generate…..a report indicating that despite current lower oil prices in the US and the world, we can expect tighter markets and increased global demand in the second half of 2023.

Here is how Axios reported the prediction of the International Energy Agency on Tuesday:

The global oil market is slated to tighten later this year amid higher than expected demand growth, the International Energy Agency said this morning, Ben writes.

What they’re saying: Yes, prices slid in recent weeks as traders responded to “muted” industrial activity and higher interest rates, which bolstered concerns about “recessionary scenarios” and lower demand growth, the IEA said.

  • But its monthly outlook says this pessimism “stands in stark contrast” to tighter markets projected in the second half of 2022.

The big picture: IEA revised their 2023 demand growth forecast upward by 200,000 barrels per day, with China’s rebound stronger than expected.

Zoom in: They now see global oil thirst rising 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) this year to reach 102 million bpd — well above 2019’s pre-pandemic level.

🧮 One wild stat: China will account for 60% of global demand growth this year.

The intrigue: Russia’s exports remain robust, reaching a post-invasion high last month, the IEA said.

  • “Russia seems to have few problems finding willing buyers for its crude and oil products, frequently at the expense of fellow OPEC+ members.”

Source: Axios Generate