With the heat dome lingering over Oklahoma and much of the middle part of the country, it’s hard to think about winter and cold-weather heating bills.
But the U.S. Energy Information Administration came out with a report this week saying it expects most U.S. households, on average, will pay about the same to heat their homes as they did last winter. A notable exception is that EIA expects Midwestern homes heated by natural gas will pay about 11% more on average for heat than last winter.
In its 2024 Winter Fuels Outlook, EIA forecasts a colder winter, leading to more energy consumption for heat. With energy prices similar to or slightly lower than last winter, EIA expects spending for many households will be about the same as last winter.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty about the weather over an entire season—not to mention uncertainty over commodity prices,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis.
Comparing this winter’s forecast for the average U.S. household with last winter’s results, EIA expects a 1% increase in fuel bills for homes heated by natural gas, a 5% decrease for homes heated by heating oil, a 2% increase for homes heated by electricity, and a negligible change in costs for homes heated by propane. Because weather is a key source of uncertainty in the forecast, the report also includes a warmer and colder case to produce a range of possible expenditures by fuel type.
The Winter Fuels Outlook is a supplement to EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), and EIA will update it every month through February to reflect changes in commodity prices and temperatures. This year is the first year that EIA’s forecast distinguishes between primary heating fuels consumed for space heating and other end uses.
Source: EIA
