Texans are being warned the summer of 2019 could produce even greater electricity demand than what the state saw this past summer.
Triple-digit temperatures strained the state’s main power grid to near capacity but the Electric Reliability Council of Texas says 2019 will be worse. That’s because the cushion between peak electricity usage and maximum generation capacity will be at its narrowest in 20 years.
The council oversees the Texas power grid and is usually referred to as ERCOT.
A tight initial estimate of the electricity grid’s planning reserve margin ahead of summer 2018 prompted the agency to warn at the time that a variety of emergency measures might be needed — including rolling blackouts — if demand exceeded supply. The situation was alleviated without resorting to such efforts, however, after a number of power plants that hadn’t been expected to be operational ended up coming online.
But ERCOT is forecasting even less room for error next year. The planning reserve margin for summer 2019 has been pegged at 8.1 percent, compared to 9.3 percent in early forecasts for summer 2018.
“With the declining reserve margin, there certainly is a greater risk that we would enter into an energy emergency situation,” in which measures such as voluntary outages for large customers or rolling blackouts might be needed, said Pete Warnken, manager of resource adequacy for ERCOT.
Still, Warnken noted that plenty of variables could change actual electricity usage and power generation next summer from the early projections, so he said “we really can’t speculate at this point” if emergency measures will be needed. Weather conditions will have a major impact on electricity demand and generation, he said, and unforeseen circumstances could cause power plants to produce more or less than anticipated.
Peak demand for electricity in the state’s deregulated market set a record in summer 2018, when it hit 73,473 megawatts between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m. on July 19. But ERCOT is forecasting the record will be broken again next summer, estimating peak demand will come in at 74,853 megawatts.
The agency said electricity to power rigs for oil and gas drilling in West Texas has been among the big drivers of the increasing demand. The annual growth rate in West Texas peak electricity demand is estimated at about 8 percent through 2023, according to ERCOT, compared to a projected system-wide demand growth rate of about 2 percent.
Meanwhile, Warnken said, “delays and cancellations” of a number of wind-energy and natural gas-fueled generation projects have pinched the state’s power reserve margin for next summer.
But the trend is expected to reverse in 2020 and 2021 as generators respond to the tight supplies and build new power plants. ERCOT projects the reserve margin will climb to 10.7 percent in summer 2020 and to 12.2 percent in summer 2021, before tightening again.
“The ERCOT market has experience in these cycles of (power plant) retirements and resource investments,” Warnken said. “We think the market is functioning the way it was designed.”