Energy Briefs: Oil Forecasts Surge, Hormuz Tensions

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Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Outlook

Goldman Sachs sharply raised its oil price forecast in response, now projecting Brent crude to average $110 per barrel in the near term, a roughly 62% jump from the 2025 annual average. The bank also bumped its WTI crude estimates higher for the coming months. Analysts warned that if the Strait of Hormuz stays mostly closed for 10 weeks, Brent could surpass its all-time high from July 2008, when it briefly hit around $147 per barrel.

India Buys Iranian Crude Following Sanctions Shift

India’s Reliance Industries, operator of the world’s biggest oil refining complex, has purchased 5 million barrels of Iranian crude, days after the U.S. temporarily removed sanctions on ‌the oil, three sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday. The Indian refiner bought the oil from the National Iranian Oil Co., two of the sources said.

Bahrain Pushes U.N. Action on Shipping Security

Bahrain has put forward a draft U.N. Security Council resolution that would authorize countries to use “all necessary means” to protect commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz, according to a ‌text seen by Reuters. Diplomats said the draft text was backed by other Gulf Arab states and the United States, although they said it was unlikely to pass due to potential vetoes from Russia and China.

African Oil Producers Signal Policy Concerns

African Petroleum Ministers have declined to participate in the upcoming Africa Energies Summit (AES) taking place May 12–14, 2026 in London, citing concerns around local content, representation, and the broader direction of the platform’s agenda. The move underscores the importance of domestic priorities in Africa’s energy sector.

Sierra Leone Targets Energy Investment Growth

The Petroleum Directorate of Sierra Leone (PDSL) is set to convene an investor roundtable at the Invest in African Energy (IAE) Forum 2026 in Paris, highlighting growing interest in West African energy markets and the need for expanded capital investment across exploration, renewables, and offshore energy services.

U.S. Refinery Explosion Prompts Emergency Response

A large explosion at a Valero oil refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, shot plumes of smoke into the air and forced nearby residents to shelter in place. Port Arthur Mayor Charlotte Moses said there were no fatalities or injuries and that “Valero is working diligently to contain the fire.” As of late Monday, there were no air quality issues reported.

USDA Invests $115 Million in Timber Production

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced a $115.2 million investment to expand timber production and improve forest health. The funding supports the Timber Production Expansion Guaranteed Loan Program (TPEP), aimed at addressing sawmill shortages and boosting wood processing capacity.

California Heat Wave Threatens Snowpack

A record-breaking California heat wave is impacting the state’s snowpack, with rising temperatures accelerating snowmelt and increasing risks of flooding and water supply disruption. Officials warn that rapidly changing conditions could have significant consequences for water resources and energy demand.

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