Arkansas River commercial traffic declines sharply
Commercial shipping traffic on the Arkansas River has fallen sharply in 2025, with new federal data showing a 20% decline in river-borne tonnage, a downturn being attributed to a combination of President Trump’s tariffs and challenging water conditions.
According to figures compiled by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, commercial shipments on the Arkansas River totaled 763,544 tons in November, a 28% decrease compared with the same month last year. The decline reflects what analysts described as “significant contractions” in key commodities traditionally moved on the inland waterway.
Soybeans and fertilizer shipments see steep declines
Among the hardest-hit categories were soybeans and chemical fertilizers, two staples of river commerce in Arkansas and surrounding agricultural regions. Both products saw substantial reductions in shipment volumes during the fall shipping season.
The Corps data, cited by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, pointed to trade tariffs as a major factor behind the slowdown. Export uncertainty tied to tariffs has reduced demand for agricultural commodities, while higher costs for imported inputs have dampened fertilizer shipments.
River operators also faced adverse water conditions throughout much of the year. Periods of low water during the summer and difficult winter navigation conditions further constrained barge traffic, compounding the effects of weaker demand.
2025 river commerce at lowest level since 2019
From January through November 2025, total river-borne commerce on the Arkansas River reached 9,183,230 tons, marking the lowest year-to-date total since 2019, according to Corps records.
The Arkansas River system serves as a critical transportation artery for bulk commodities, offering lower-cost shipping for agriculture, energy products, and industrial materials. Reduced tonnage not only affects barge operators but also has ripple effects for farmers, fertilizer suppliers, ports, and regional manufacturers that rely on dependable river transport.
Tariffs and weather create compounding pressures
Industry observers note that while water levels fluctuate year to year, the combination of trade policy uncertainty and environmental constraints has created an unusually difficult operating environment in 2025.
Tariffs have altered traditional export flows for U.S. soybeans, reducing international demand and leaving fewer cargos moving downstream toward Gulf Coast export terminals. At the same time, fertilizer producers and distributors have adjusted shipping strategies amid price volatility and tighter margins.
While river traffic often rebounds when conditions improve, the Corps data suggests structural challenges may persist if trade disruptions continue into 2026.
Click here for Arkansas Democrat Gazette