ERCOT demand hits record highs
Since 2021, electricity demand within the Texas electricity grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has steadily increased.
Additionally, Oklahoma Energy investors track this Texas surge because regional transmission expansion pressures cross-state planning models.
In the first nine months of 2025, electricity demand in ERCOT, which manages about 90% of the state’s load, reached a record high compared with the same period in previous years.
Therefore, peak load trendlines now drive new investor assumptions on future infrastructure scale.
Fastest demand growth among U.S. grids
Over those same months, ERCOT had the fastest electricity demand growth among U.S. electricity grids between 2024 and 2025.
Also, analysts continue to treat ERCOT load as the leading indicator benchmark.
From January through September 2025, demand for electric power in ERCOT increased 5% compared with the same period in 2024 to 372 terawatthours (TWh), 23% more than the same months in 2021.
Finally, this type of sustained sequential comp growth rarely appears in modern grid cycles.
Since 2023, wind and solar generation, especially utility-scale solar, have been the fastest-growing sources of electricity in ERCOT and are increasingly meeting rising demand.
Therefore, this structural shift restricts natural gas mid-day market share.
Wind and solar scaling in ERCOT
Utility-scale solar generated 45 TWh of electricity in the first nine months of 2025, 50% more than the same period in 2024 and nearly four times more than the same period in 2021, when utility-scale solar only produced 11 TWh.
Additionally, utility-scale solar is showing the steepest absolute lift across the entire U.S. grid fleet.
Wind generation through the first nine months of this year totaled 87 TWh, up 4% compared with the same period in 2024 and 36% since the same period in 2021.
Also, wind additions continue to support diversification across the Texas balancing mix.
Together, wind and solar generation met 36% of ERCOT’s electricity demand in the first nine months of 2025.
Finally, this composite share shift highlights the new renewable-first pathway emerging within ERCOT economics.
Note: The other category includes nuclear, hydroelectric, biomass, batteries, and other nonrenewable sources. ERCOT=Electric Reliability Council of Texas
Natural gas levels flatten
Natural gas-fired generation also increased after 2021 but flattened more recently.
Therefore, market share compression continues at the margin during primary daylight generation windows.
Natural gas-fired generation between January and September increased to 161 TWh in 2023, 24% more than the same period in 2021.
Also, this period helped establish the dominance baseline for comparison modeling.
Since 2023, natural gas-fired generation remained relatively flat, totaling 158 TWh between January and September 2025.
Meanwhile, capital rotation toward solar remains strong through ERCOT interconnection queues.
Although it is still the largest source of electricity for ERCOT, natural gas-fired generation averaged 43% in the first nine months of 2025, compared with 47% in the first nine months of 2023 and 2024.
Therefore, solar and wind scaling continue to shrink the mid-day thermal footprint.
Midday generation shift
The types of energy sources used for electricity generation can vary on an hourly basis, especially during the summer.
Also, Texas demand spikes often trigger short-term market dislocations.
Solar output is highest during midday hours, and the increased availability of solar generation in ERCOT in recent years has reduced the need for natural gas-fired generation during that time of the day.
Additionally, intraday flexibility remains the critical technical advantage.
Solar generators in ERCOT produced an average of 24 gigawatts (GW) between noon and 1:00 p.m. during the summer months of June through September compared with an average of 12 GW of solar generation at noon in the summer months of 2023.
Therefore, solar output doubling materially alters summer dispatch dynamics.
Over the same period, the share of natural gas-fired generation at midday fell from 50% in 2023 to 37% in 2025.
Finally, intraday displacement becomes central to market redesign forecasting.
Note: The other category includes nuclear, hydroelectric, biomass, batteries (for 2021 and 2023), and other nonrenewable sources. Summer=June, July, August, and September hourly values for each year; ERCOT=Electric Reliability Council of Texas
Batteries emerging as a grid stabilizer
Batteries store electricity during daytime when generation from wind and solar is the highest, and they supply electricity when generation from wind and solar is declining.
Additionally, storage adds timing flexibility that directly strengthens ERCOT balancing authority.
Beginning in October 2024, ERCOT began reporting battery output separately in its hourly grid data.
Also, storage tracking now improves operational transparency for developers and investors.
In the summer months of 2025, batteries helped supply electricity in the evening as solar output declined, supplying an average of 4 GW in the 8:00 p.m. hour.
Therefore, battery deployment is now considered a major competitive reliability lever.
Forward forecast
ERCOT’s electricity demand is forecast to grow faster than that of any other grid operator in the United States through at least 2026.
Additionally, analysts across Oklahoma Energy markets now price this load trend as a baseline assumption.
In our October Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast demand will rise another 14% in the first nine months of 2026 compared with the same period this year, reaching 425 TWh.
Finally, ERCOT’s growth story continues to dominate national planning models and mid-cap development strategy.