Oil and gas exploration firms held on as long as they could before Oklahoma saw any reduction in its weekly rig counts.
As we reported this week, the state’s rig numbers fell by 3, based on the Rig Count supplied by Baker Hughes Co. It left 43 others still drilling for more oil and natural gas. The nation’s total fell by 8 to 539 rigs.
What’s behind the decline after the state had maintained a healthy gain in rigs that lasted for several months? A simple answer….the falling price of crude oil. And a new short-term forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration suggests prices won’t grow much for the remainder of 2025 and it will result in lower oil production, not just in Oklahoma but all around the country.
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook explained what the forecasters believe will occur including a continuing decline of crude oil prices into the 50s.
- Global oil prices. The Brent crude oil price in our forecast averages $69 per barrel (b) this year, which is $3/b higher than in last month’s STEO, which was released just before the conflict over Iran’s nuclear program escalated in mid-June. The increase in the forecast is driven largely by higher near-term prices due to a more significant geopolitical risk premium from the conflict. Despite the risk premium, we expect significant global oil inventories builds will put consistent downward pressure on oil prices over the forecast period, with the Brent price averaging $58/b in 2026. This forecast was completed before OPEC+ announced on July 5 that it would raise production targets for August. The announced targets are somewhat higher than the target we assumed when compiling this outlook.
- U.S. crude oil production. Declining oil prices have contributed to U.S. producers slowing their drilling and completion activity this year. As a result, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will decline from an all-time high of just over 13.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) to less than 13.3 million b/d by 4Q26. On an annual basis, we now forecast crude oil production will average 13.4 million b/d in both 2025 and 2026.
