Revenue collections in Oklahoma are off analysts’ predictions

Oklahoma’s General Revenue Fund collections in December 2019 totaled $631.8 million. This is $11.2 million, or 1.8%, above collections in December 2018. At the same time, this figure is $8.9 million, or 1.4%, below the monthly estimate. Oil and gas tax collections were below the collections reported a year ago.

Total GRF collections over the first six months of fiscal year 2020 were $28.3 million, or 0.9%, above the estimate, and $65.6 million, or 2.1%, above prior year collections for the same period.

  • Gross production tax collections of $54.3 million were $21.6 million, or 28.4%, below the estimate and $37.1 million, or 40.6%, below the prior year.
    Natural gas collections of $16.7 million were $26.1 million, or 61.0%, below the estimate and $21.6 million, or 56.4%, below the prior year.
    Oil collections of $37.7 were $4.5 million, or 13.6%, above the estimate and $15.5 million, or 29.2%, below the prior year.

“Year-to-date collections for fiscal year 2020 continue to be above the estimate, in spite of the slight decrease in the December monthly figure,” said John Budd, director of the Office of Management and Enterprise Services. “Barring a nationwide slowdown or further deterioration in the oil and gas sector, we expect to remain well within the 5% cushion built into the general revenue budget.

“Following next month’s meeting of the State Board of Equalization, we will have a clearer picture of the revenue projection for FY 2020,” he said.

Major tax categories in December contributed the following amounts to the GRF:

  • Total income tax collections of $310.4 million were $36.0 million, or 13.1%, above the estimate and $92.3 million, or 42.3%, above the prior year.
    Individual income tax collections of $246.0 million were $28.3 million, or 10.3%, below the estimate and $28.0 million, or 12.8%, above the prior year.
    Corporate income tax collections were $64.3 million. Corporate income taxes were zero in the prior December and were estimated to be zero.
  • Sales tax collections of $183.5 million were $18.5 million, or 9.2%, below the estimate and $11.5 million, or 5.9%, below the prior year.
  • Motor vehicle tax collections of $3.3 million were $1.4 million, or 74.2%, above the estimate and $13.1 million, or 79.9%, below the prior year.

Other revenue collections of $80.3 million were $6.3 million, or 7.2%, below the estimate and $19.4 million, or 19.4%, below the prior year.

As state government’s main operating fund, the GRF is the key indicator of state government’s fiscal status and the predominant funding source for the annual appropriated state budget. GRF collections are revenues that remain for the appropriated state budget after rebates, refunds, other mandatory apportionments and after sales and use taxes are remitted back to municipalities. In contrast, gross collections, reported by the State Treasurer, are all revenues remitted to the Oklahoma Tax Commission.

 

Source: McCarville Report