When it comes to the massive oil production in the Permian Basin, “The best years are behind us,” claims former Amoco scientist Arthur Berman.
It’s what he recently told engineers, geologists, lawyers and financiers who gathered for the annual meeting of the Texas Energy Council.
“The growth is done,” he proclaimed. This is the same geologist who ten years ago predicted that natural gas was about to run out in the U.S.
Now Berman, an industry consultant near Houston, says the Permian Basin, already pumping more oil than any other oil play in the U.S. won’t last long. He’s predicted it has only about seven years of proven oil reserves remaining, according to a recent report in the Dallas Morning News.
He warned those investors who plan to rely on shale fields to make major contributions to future world wide crude supplies will be disappointed.
“The reserves are respectable but they ain’t great and ain’t going to save the world,” he boldly told the gathering.
He explained his outlook is based on analyses of reserves and production data from more than a dozen prominent shale drillers. But what Berman believes will happen is far different than the predictions of the U.S. Energy Department and Chevron Corp. They contend the Permian Basin of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico is quickly becoming a dominant force in global crude markets.
This is the same Arthur Berman whose natural gas prediction was met with skepticism from leaders of Devon Energy and Chesapeake Energy Corp. not too many years ago. One of those skeptics, Devon’s CEO Dave Hager once wrote that Berman was “in the stands speculating on whether the slugger is on steroids.”