The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center division released its update to the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
NOAA forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60%, down from the May outlook which predicted a 65% chance. The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season.
NOAA’s update to the 2022 outlook— which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on November 30 — calls for 14-20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 3-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
This outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. That’s because landfalls are largely governed by short-term weather patterns that are only predictable within about one week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.
The peak for hurricanes — August through October – is currently underway.